Three ways to estimate COVID-19’s real toll in Africa

The true case count may be 10M, not the 1M reported

Image for post
Image for post
A masked crowd in Lagos, Nigeria.

1. The model approach

Image for post
Image for post
Estimated number of COVID-19 infections across 41 African countries. Source: IHME (as of August 12, 2020)

2. A matter of death and life

Image for post
Image for post
Predicted COVID-19 infection fatality rate. Source: Surgo Foundation.

3. Testing the test data

Image for post
Image for post
Test positivity rate across Africa as of August 12, 2020. Source: FinDX

Three methods, similar results

Written by

We use all the tools available from behavioral science, data science, and artificial intelligence to unlock solutions that will save and improve people’s lives.

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store