Three ways to estimate COVID-19’s real toll in Africa

The true case count may be 10M, not the 1M reported

A masked crowd in Lagos, Nigeria.

1. The model approach

Estimated number of COVID-19 infections across 41 African countries. Source: IHME (as of August 12, 2020)

2. A matter of death and life

Predicted COVID-19 infection fatality rate. Source: Surgo Foundation.

3. Testing the test data

Test positivity rate across Africa as of August 12, 2020. Source: FinDX

Three methods, similar results

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